# Europe’s connectivity choices Space Futures | Research dossier Editorial review: 2026-09-12 | Planning horizon: 2026 to 2030 ## Strategic question Which dependencies should your organisation examine before committing to its next connectivity partnership? ## Perspective Our planning proposition: connectivity sovereignty becomes useful to an organisation when it can specify the control, continuity and service access it needs. Satellite ownership alone does not answer those questions. A procurement team might need a workable transition; a supplier might need a defined interface and qualification route. Map those dependencies before treating a programme milestone as a reason to commit. The scenarios below explore different paths, without ranking their likelihood. ## Dated evidence ### An expanded programme baseline On 7 August 2026, ESA reported an implementation agreement for a main IRIS² constellation of 348 satellites. It described first launches targeted for 2029 and work still ahead on detailed design, ground infrastructure and deployment. These are programme intentions, not evidence of available service. Sources: esa-iris2 ### Responsibilities are becoming specific OHB announced an award for eighteen MEO satellite platforms on 31 August. SES’s 7 August statement places payload production and satellite assembly, integration and testing at its Luxembourg facilities. Together, the releases identify distinct delivery responsibilities. Sources: ohb-platforms, ses-meo ### A service target still needs qualification SES targets MEO service entry in 2030. ESA describes progressive operational deployment from 2029 onwards. These statements concern different scopes; neither establishes when a particular customer can obtain a qualified service on acceptable terms. Sources: ses-meo, esa-iris2 ## Open questions - Which terminals, integration requirements and service terms will apply to your intended use? The reviewed announcements do not settle them. - How will manufacturing, launch, ground readiness and customer qualification interact if one workstream moves more slowly? - What combination of operational control, geography and recovery capability would satisfy your organisation’s actual sovereignty requirement? ## Conditional scenarios These are possibilities, not predictions or assigned probabilities. ### A coordinated transition Condition: If space infrastructure, ground systems and user qualification become ready in a compatible sequence. Customers could move selected workloads through trials into routine use while retaining existing links during acceptance. Suppliers with tested interfaces could find an opening before large operational commitments. The useful advantage would be readiness to integrate, rather than simply being early to express interest. Possible implication: Prepare a narrowly defined use case and acceptance checklist that can be tested when an appropriate service becomes available. Watchpoint: Published user trials that connect technical performance to a named service and onboarding route. ### An extended overlap Condition: If infrastructure enters use in stages and customer transition takes longer than expected. Organisations could operate old and new arrangements together for several budget cycles. Integration work, retraining and duplicated support might matter more than the nominal service start. Decisions made around a single switch-over date could become difficult to unwind even if the underlying programme continues progressing. Possible implication: Examine contract flexibility, migration effort and the resources needed to support two arrangements at once. Watchpoint: Changes to customer migration windows, compatibility requirements or the scope of early services. ### Different routes to service Condition: If public and commercial users require different assurances, interfaces and purchasing arrangements. A single programme could support several distinct markets. A proposition designed for one user group might need substantial adaptation elsewhere. Demand for assured emergency communications, for example, could create different integration questions from routine enterprise connectivity, without either route becoming the universal model. Possible implication: Choose the user problem and assurance requirement your organisation can credibly address before broadening the proposition. Watchpoint: Separate qualification pathways and service descriptions for different customer groups. ## What to watch ### Demonstrated interfaces A documented handover between components helps test whether your own integration assumptions remain workable. ### Acceptance evidence A launch or factory milestone answers a different question from a customer’s ability to operate a service. ### A practical route to purchase Named requirements and usable terms turn a broad opportunity into a decision your team can assess. ## Decision prompts - Write down one critical connectivity dependency, its owner and the consequence of an interruption. - Choose one reversible preparation step, such as mapping an interface or documenting an acceptance requirement. - Define the evidence that would justify a larger commitment, and a review date before that commitment becomes difficult to change. ## Sources [esa-iris2] ESA · primary source: IRIS² reinforced and accelerated as implementation advances Published 2026-08-07; accessed 2026-09-12. https://www.esa.int/Applications/Connectivity_and_Secure_Communications/IRIS2_reinforced_and_accelerated_as_implementation_advances [ohb-platforms] OHB · supplier announcement: IRIS² award for eighteen satellite platforms Published 2026-08-31; accessed 2026-09-12. https://www.ohb.de/en/news/ohb-has-been-awarded-a-contract-worth-nearly-1-billion-for-the-development-and-production-of-eighteen-satellite-platforms-for-iris%C2%B2 [ses-meo] SES · operator announcement: SES MEO strategy after IRIS² Rendez-vous 1 Published 2026-08-07; accessed 2026-09-12. https://www.ses.com/news/press-release/ses-advances-nextgeneration-meo-strategy-following-successful-completion-of [si-connectivity] Space Insights · separate analysis publication: Buses from Bremen, Payloads in Luxembourg Published 2026-09-08; accessed 2026-09-12. https://www.spaceinsights.io/insights/ohb-iris2-meo-platforms-2026