# How we explore futures

Space Futures | Method note | 2026-09-12

A transparent path from dated evidence to conditional scenarios and a decision you can revisit.

## 1. Bound the question

Start with an organisation, a decision and a planning horizon. A broad theme such as connectivity becomes more useful when expressed as a choice about a dependency, service or capability. The horizon sets the period you want to think about; it does not promise when a programme will deliver.

Our Atlas offers topic and perspective filters to help locate a relevant starting question. These are editorial classifications. They are not a quantitative risk model, a live market map or an assessment of which organisation is most exposed.

## 2. Keep evidence and interpretation separate

Each dossier lists the observations used in its argument and links them to a source register. The source's publication date, the date it was accessed and the dossier's editorial review date have different meanings. Accessing an older document does not make its claims newly verified outcomes.

Primary records are preferred for programme commitments, contracts and reported operations. A source's announcement is described as an announcement. Space Insights analyses can help connect developments, but remain a separate publication and are attributed as such. We do not silently convert their reporting into an official primary record.

## 3. Expose uncertainty before writing scenarios

An open question identifies what the available evidence does not establish. Delivery timing, repeatability, integration requirements and user adoption can remain uncertain after a technically significant milestone. These gaps help define the conditions explored in the scenarios.

Each dossier contains three conditional paths. Each states a condition, describes a possible situation, explores an implication and identifies something to watch. The scenarios are authored interpretations, not model-generated forecasts, probability estimates or exhaustive alternatives. They may overlap, and users should consider further paths that fit their own context.

## 4. Record a decision and a review trigger

Decision Studio provides a structured worksheet. It does not score an organisation, optimise a choice or produce personalised advice. The visitor supplies the decision, its possible implications and the next evidence or action. Source references and the selected scenario travel with the exported note.

Personal notes remain in the current browser tab. They are not submitted to Space Futures, stored in an account or retained between visits. Download the Markdown file or use the print view to keep a copy. A blank worksheet is also available for working offline.

## 5. Revisit when the evidence warrants it

A useful watchpoint is something observable that would change an assumption: a demonstrated service, a published acceptance criterion or a documented user outcome. It is more specific than a general intention to follow the news. The decision owner can choose when and how to check it.

The current collection is a dated editorial snapshot. It is not connected to a live monitoring feed and has no guaranteed update schedule. Corrections and additional perspectives should identify the affected claim and provide an inspectable source. A configured contribution channel will be named on the contribution page when available.